By popular demand (meaning questions from at least two different commenters), I need to do a follow-up to The Class of 2008: Who’s Going to Be Progressive? from last Friday that sees it through to the next step. I had previously investigated The House Seats Where We Made the Most Progress in 2006, comparing the DW-Nominate scores of new Democrats elected in 2006 against the Republicans who occupied the seats until 2006. The question arose: which seats will potentially have the biggest similar right-to-left shifts in 2008?
There’s a big problem there. The demographic prediction method I was using in the Class of 2008 diary was, at best, a blunt instrument, and I feel a little embarrassed using it even to estimate broad categories like “Progressive” or “Blue Dog,” let alone using it to extrapolate specific legislators’ future DW-Nominate scores to three significant digits. However, I quickly realized the importance of making some educated guesses about this topic, pushed along by Mimikatz‘s diary over at Open Left. It’s important information for deciding what races to give our relatively-tiny netroots dollars to, where we can have the most leverage in moving the needle to the left.
As an added bonus, most of the races that topped the list are lower on prognosticators’ watch lists. Many are on the DCCC’s “Emerging Races” list and on Swing State Project‘s “Likely R” or “Races to Watch” lists. Again, that stretches the effect of our dollars, and it means our targeted giving can help clue the DCCC in for what deserves “Red to Blue” status instead. Here are the top 20 races for maximum right-to-left impact:
| District | 110th Rep. | 110th Score | 111th Rep. | 111th Score | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA-46 | Rohrabacher (R) | 0.836 | Cook (D) | -0.600 | -1.436 |
| NJ-05 | Garrett (R) | 0.771 | Shulman (D) | -0.600 | -1.371 |
| AZ-03 | Shadegg (R) | 0.923 | Lord (D) | -0.400 | -1.323 |
| CA-50 | Bilbray (R) | 0.715 | Leibham (D) | -0.600 | -1.315 |
| FL-24 | Feeney (R) | 0.768 | Kosmas? (D) | -0.350 | -1.118 |
| CO-04 | Musgrave (R) | 0.684 | Markey (D) | -0.400 | -1.084 |
| ID-01 | Sali (R) | 0.852 | Minnick (D) | -0.200 | -1.052 |
| TX-07 | Culberson (R) | 0.637 | Skelly (D) | -0.400 | -1.037 |
| MI-07 | Walberg (R) | 0.623 | Schauer (D) | -0.400 | -1.023 |
| MN-02 | Kline (R) | 0.615 | Sarvi (D) | -0.400 | -1.015 |
| OH-01 | Chabot (R) | 0.665 | Dreihaus (D) | -0.350 | -1.015 |
| IL-13 | Biggert (R) | 0.508 | Harper (D) | -0.500 | -1.008 |
| MN-06 | Bachmann (R) | 0.703 | Tinklenburg (D) | -0.300 | -1.003 |
| CA-26 | Dreier (R) | 0.495 | Warner (D) | -0.500 | -0.995 |
| FL-15 | Weldon (R – open) | 0.590 | Blythe? (D) | -0.400 | -0.990 |
| IL-06 | Roskam (R) | 0.538 | Morganthaler (D) | -0.450 | -0.988 |
| NY-13 | Fosella (R – open) | 0.518 | McMahon? (D) | -0.450 | -0.968 |
| NV-02 | Heller (R) | 0.561 | Derby (D) | -0.400 | -0.961 |
| NE-02 | Terry (R) | 0.545 | Esch (D) | -0.400 | -0.945 |
| NC-10 | McHenry (R) | 0.745 | Johnson (D) | -0.200 | -0.945 |
More over the flip…
Now let’s look at the rest of the Toss-ups and Lean races, that didn’t fit into the previous table. These tend not to have as big a right-to-left impact, as these tend to be races where a Main Street (i.e. ‘moderate’) Republican currently occupies the seat. (Although in some cases, the moderate Republican is retiring and a probably-more-conservative Republican is running to replace him or her.) As you can probably tell, this is where the “Red to Blue” races cluster.
| District | 110th Rep. | 110th Score | 111th Rep. | 111th Score | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MI-09 | Knollenberg (R) | 0.428 | Peters (D) | -0.500 | -0.928 |
| WA-08 | Reichert (R) | 0.324 | Burner (D) | -0.600 | -0.924 |
| IL-10 | Kirk (R) | 0.323 | Seals (D) | -0.600 | -0.923 |
| OH-02 | Schmidt (R) | 0.535 | Wulsin (D) | -0.350 | -0.885 |
| MN-03 | Ramstad (R – open) | 0.433 | Madia (D) | -0.450 | -0.883 |
| NY-26 | Reynolds (R – open) | 0.462 | Powers? (D) | -0.400 | -0.862 |
| CT-04 | Shays (R) | 0.241 | Himes (D) | -0.600 | -0.841 |
| VA-11 | Davis (R – open) | 0.419 | Connolly (D) | -0.400 | -0.819 |
| OH-15 | Pryce (R – open) | 0.413 | Kilroy (D) | -0.400 | -0.813 |
| NY-29 | Kuhl (R) | 0.358 | Massa (D) | -0.450 | -0.808 |
| MO-06 | Graves (R) | 0.499 | Barnes (D) | -0.300 | -0.799 |
| NJ-03 | Saxton (R – open) | 0.288 | Adler (D) | -0.500 | -0.788 |
| NJ-07 | Ferguson (R – open) | 0.280 | Stender (D) | -0.500 | -0.780 |
| NM-01 | Wilson (R – open) | 0.317 | Heinrich (D) | -0.450 | -0.767 |
| NY-25 | Walsh (R – open) | 0.312 | Maffei (D) | -0.450 | -0.762 |
| NC-08 | Hayes (R) | 0.457 | Kissell (D) | -0.300 | -0.757 |
| IL-11 | Weller (R – open) | 0.386 | Halvorson (D) | -0.350 | -0.736 |
| NV-03 | Porter (R) | 0.324 | Titus (D) | -0.400 | -0.724 |
| AK-AL | Young (R) | 0.401 | Berkowitz? (D) | -0.300 | -0.701 |
| LA-04 | McCrery (R – open) | 0.482 | Carmouche (D) | -0.200 | -0.682 |
| AZ-01 | Renzi (R – open) | 0.337 | Kirkpatrick? D) | -0.300 | -0.637 |
| OH-16 | Regula (R – open) | 0.325 | Boccieri (D) | -0.300 | -0.625 |
Finally, some of you may be wondering where the smallest right-to-left impact would be felt. That would be MD-01, where Wayne Gilchrest is one of the most moderate Republicans in the House (0.257), and district demographics predict Frank Kratovil as Likely New Dem, Possible Blue Dog (- 0.350), for a difference of – 0.607. (Bear in mind that the Republican candidate this year, though, is Andy Harris, who’s well to the right of Gilchrest, so this race gains some importance.) IL-18 is runner-up, and a similar case (Aaron Schock is likely to be well to the right of retiring Ray LaHood). This leaves IA-04 as the race with a GOP incumbent and the smallest impact (Tom Latham at 0.412 versus Becky Greenwald, predicted at – 0.200, difference of – 0.612).
If you’re wondering where the likely DW-Nominate scores came from, the short answer is: my butt. The longer answer is, I assigned a relatively round number to each category from my Class of 2008 diary, based on where Progressives, sorta-Progressives, New Dems, and so on, tended to cluster. The assigned value, however doesn’t seem as important in providing the right-to-left shift as just how wingnutty the current Republican is; see how much correlation there is between my first list and the list of vulnerable Republicans as predicted by my PVI/Vote Index.
Here are the assigned values (along with the Dem representatives who have scores in the 110th closest to those scores, so you have a point of comparison):
Likely Progressives: – 0.600 (Diane Watson, Mike Honda, Alcee Hastings)
Likely Progressives, Possible New Dems: – 0.500 (Zoe Lofgren, E.B. Johnson, Charlie Rangel)
Likely New Dems, Possible Progressives: – 0.450 (Al Green, Tom Allen, Loretta Sanchez)
Likely New Dems: – 0.400 (Albio Sires, John Yarmuth, Sander Levin)
Likely New Dems, Possible Blue Dogs: – 0.350 (Mel Carnahan, Shelly Berkley, Brian Higgins)
Likely Blue Dogs, Possible New Dems: – 0.300 (Ruben Hinojosa, Dutch Ruppersburger, Silvestre Reyes)
Likely Blue Dogs: – 0.200 (Baron Hill, Zack Space, Allen Boyd)
Based on people’s comments from the Class of 2008 diary where they gave some anecdotal evidence that so-and-so scored too low, I gave a +0.100 bonus to Schauer, Kissell, Baker (in MO-09), and Barth, lifting them out of Blue Dog terrain. Please keep the comments coming, in case there are any other cases you see where someone’s ranking doesn’t pass the smell test.
You have Victoria Wulsin rated as a Blue Dog/New Democrat, and she definitely isn’t in that territory. Probably the only reason that she wasn’t elected in 2006 was that she’s far more liberal than the district – I believe that she supports gay rights, universal health care withdrawing from Iraq, and repealing the Bush tax cuts.
I’ll try to find some links to where she stands on the issues, but I would put her at at least 0.500 or so right now.
I would give Tom Perriello the same boost and it seems as if Goode has a bad enough voting record to put that race on the list. Looks like you ranked him as a Likely Blue Dog, I’d rank him closer to a 0.350-0.400 then a 0.200.
and I’ll say it again. Debbie Cook of Huntington Beach will be a great progressive. She led the fight to stop two of Huntington Beach’s nicest parks, the Bolsa Chica Wetlands and Huntington Central Park from beoming homes and a golf course.
Especially when you consider who she is running against. Rohrbacher told a LB City councilwoman that the Bolsa China Wetlands should be paved over and replaced with low income houseing.
sigh
http://www.actblue.com/page/du…
I think Larry Kissell will be far more progressive than he is being given credit for. I would expect his votes to mirror those of the Triangle region’s reps, David Price (NC-4) and Brad Miller (NC-13). Both have campaigned for Larry.
And once Larry gets hold of this seat, he’s gonna keep it a long time. How many high school teachers are there in Congress? Or textile workers who saw their plant closed, and then bulldozed? Larry won’t forget where he came from.
any chance we can get the rest of that list?? Thats something I’d really like to see. I can provide an e-mail address if you don’t want to post it all up here. Thats assuming you did a list for all of the challengers.
These are really helpful.
It’s Ann Kirkpatrick in AZ-01 (not to be confused with Joan Fitz-Gerald in CO-03). And I think Judy Feder is a bit more progressive than her score shows, or maybe Wolf isn’t that bad. Many thanks.
it would be nice to see the difference between the Democrats and the Republicans running as well.
For example, Martin Heinrich vs Darren White.
I have to put in a few words for Vic Wulsin, who is an extraordinary person running against one of the worst people in the world.
It’s not just about left-to-right with this race, it’s the difference between profound competence and sanity against a deranged person.
Very similar in fact to the Debbie Cook vs Dana Rohrabacher (R-Crazytown) race.